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CONSTRUCTION COST CALCULATOR
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INSIGHTS

Construction Market Intelligence

UK Edition

Q1 2026

Essential reading for all construction professionals involved in cost management and procurement
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Tom Powney

Senior Cost Manager

Tom.Powney@uk.rlb.com

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South West

After a long stretch of high inflation, cost increases in Bristol’s construction market are starting to stabilise. Prices are still high and continue to put pressure on project viability, but the general mood is one of optimism.

A lot of activity is being driven by major regeneration programmes, such as Temple Quarter Enterprise Campus and Bedminster Green, along with the ongoing need for more housing across the city. Material cost fluctuations have calmed, but projects are still being held back by ongoing skills shortages and high labour costs.

Even with these near-term challenges, Bristol is moving into a period of major long-term regeneration. In the short term, the picture is varied. There’s strong activity in purpose-built student accommodation and build-to-rent schemes. Big regional infrastructure projects, such as the newly named Aviva Arena, are also contributing to demand. However, other markets are slowing down or stalling, mainly because of ongoing pressures from material costs, subcontractor insolvencies, and a shortage of skilled labour.

Across Bristol and the wider region, contractors are dealing with a tough market: input costs remain high, but tender price inflation is relatively subdued, so margins are still being squeezed.

MARKET CONDITIONS & PIPELINE

Large-scale regeneration schemes and ongoing demand for housing strengthen outlook for region’s construction sector

The outlook for construction in the South West is positive overall. Bristol is growing rapidly, and its population is expected to grow by more than 20% in the next 20 years. There needs to be an upward trajectory in spending to deliver the required homes, employment and infrastructure to meet the demand while considering sustainability targets.

Bristol City Council has reported that 1,700 new homes were completed in the city in the financial year 2024/25, a three-year high, However, this is still below the target required to meet expected requirements.

Recent announcements, notably Muse being selected as the developer for Temple Meads West and St Philip’s Marsh, the government proposing Brabazon as one of the locations for its New Town strategy and other large developments such as Western Harbour, will contribute significantly to meeting the demand for housing.

These schemes will also utilise some of the additional labour that is likely to be available following completion of the University of Bristol’s Temple Quarter Enterprise Campus later this year.

At the end of 2025, there appeared to be some reluctance to commit spending across all sectors. This has changed significantly since the start of the new year, and there appears to be several opportunities that are rapidly coming to market.

RLB Market Activity Cycle

The RLB Market Activity Cycle is a representation of the development activity cycle for the construction industry.

RLB considers 10 sectors to be representative of the construction industry as a whole. Each sector is assessed as to which of three activity level zones – peak, mid or trough – best represents the current status of the sector within the cycle. This assessment is then refined by identifying whether the current status is in a growth phase or a decline phase.

The subjective current performance of sectors is identified by ascribing one of the coloured arrows (shown in the legend of the chart) to each sector. NB: In this analysis, sectors are not individually weighted.

▲ Peak Growth ▲ Mid Growth ▲ Trough Growth

▼ Peak Decline ▼ Mid Decline ▼ Trough Decline

Market sector activity analysis: UK

▲ Peak Growth ▲ Mid Growth ▲ Trough Growth

▼ Peak Decline ▼ Mid Decline ▼ Trough Decline

Consolidating the results of multiple regions enables the calculation of a national representation of percentage of sectors in each phase of the cycle at a point in time.

Market sector activity analysis: SOUTH WEST

▲ Peak Growth ▲ Mid Growth ▲ Trough Growth

▼ Peak Decline ▼ Mid Decline ▼ Trough Decline

Consolidating the results of a region enables the calculation of a regional representation of percentage of sectors in each phase of the cycle at a point in time.

TENDER PRICES

  • The current forecast is that the next three years will be fairly steady with inflation running at between 3% and 4% per annum.
  • It was expected that the completion of Temple Quarter Enterprise Campus would lead to a short downturn in construction costs due to the abundance of labour available. But this appears to no longer be the case following recent project announcements in the region.

▉ RLB South West

▉ BCIS (National) TPI ▉ BCIS (GBCI)

▉ Competitors' range (High & Low)

INPUT COSTS

  • Tier 1 contractors are reporting a slight downturn in pipeline due to the finance costs of large projects. They are taking a pragmatic approach and are considering the risk profiles of schemes on an individual basis.
  • Tier 2 contractors are reporting full order books, with a high level of repeat work being awarded, or selective tender lists being used. Clients in the South West appear to be reluctant to use open tenders, citing previous experience which has shown this approach can have a significant impact on quality.
  • The best Tier 2 contractors could dominate the market over the next few years as clients look to develop smaller schemes and focus on refurbishment, rather than large new-build developments.
  • Lack of MEP contractors in the region remains a key issue, which will be exacerbated if proposed new data centre developments proceed.

SECTOR FOCUS

Infrastructure

Local transport infrastructure appears to be busy and defence has been identified as an emerging market within the region following the government's commitment to increase defence spending.

Residential

Purpose-built student accommodation developments remain popular with investors in Bristol as return on investment targets appear achievable in the current market.

CASE STUDY


The Guinness Partnership

RLB is working with The Guinness Partnership on various affordable housing schemes in the South West region.

One of the key projects involves building 104 high-quality affordable flats and a new neighbourhood police station on Trinity Road, Bristol. This development aims to help meet the strong need for low-cost housing within the city.

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