Early signs of recovery begin to emerge
New Zealand’s construction sector remains under significant pressure, with activity falling sharply across the country’s main centres.
The Q1 2026 RLB Crane Index® shows the number of long-term cranes has dropped from 116 in Q3 2025 to 102 in Q1 2026. This has driven the national index down 12.1%, from 147 to 129 points, its lowest level since 2016.
This decline reflects the completion of several major projects, including aged care developments in Auckland and the removal of cranes from One New Zealand Stadium (Te Kaha) in Christchurch.
Despite the downturn, there are early indications the market may be approaching the bottom of the cycle.
A market at the bottom of the cycle
Construction activity remains subdued, but the sector is beginning to stabilise.
Lower interest rates and continued population growth are expected to support a gradual recovery. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s reduction of the official cash rate from 5.5% in July 2024 to 2.25% in November 2025 is already beginning to stabilise parts of the residential sector.
However, activity remains well below peak levels. Residential crane numbers are holding at 29, down significantly from a high of 76 in Q3 2022. Residential cranes now account for 28.2% of total crane activity nationwide.
At the same time, non-residential construction has weakened further. The non-residential index has fallen 16% to 128 points, representing 73 cranes. This decline has been driven by reduced activity across commercial, recreation and aged care projects.
This has been partially offset by increased activity in civil, civic and healthcare developments, reinforcing the ongoing role of public and infrastructure-led investment in sustaining the sector.
National picture: fewer projects replacing completed work
Across New Zealand’s seven key centres, 102 long-term cranes were recorded over the past six months:
- 58 in Auckland
- 14 in Tauranga
- 11 in Queenstown
- 8 in Christchurch
- 4 in Wellington
- 4 in Hamilton
- 3 in Dunedin
While Auckland continues to dominate activity, accounting for more than half of the national total, most regions experienced either decline or only modest gains.
Christchurch recorded the most significant drop, with 15 cranes removed following the completion of major projects. Dunedin and Hamilton saw modest increases, while Tauranga remained stable. Wellington and Queenstown both recorded softer activity.
A key indicator of market conditions is the imbalance between completions and new starts. Over the quarter, 56 cranes were removed from sites while only 42 new cranes were installed. This points to a limited pipeline of replacement projects entering construction.
A constrained pipeline and cautious market conditions
A central challenge for the industry remains the lack of committed projects.
Commitment beyond the design stage continues to be a major constraint. Even where projects do proceed, many are unlikely to reach construction in the near term.
This is reflected in contractor sentiment. Tier 1 contractors continue to report historically low levels of crane activity and limited visibility of near-term opportunities, highlighting cautious market conditions across both public and private sectors.
Official data reinforces this slowdown. The total volume of building work in 2025 fell 8.5% year-on-year to $28.2 billion.
Encouragingly, forward indicators suggest some improvement. New dwelling consents increased by 9.3% in the year to January 2026, reaching 36,944, pointing to potential future activity.
Auckland: stabilisation led by infrastructure and selective residential
Auckland remains the centre of construction activity, though conditions indicate the market is still near the bottom of the cycle.
Activity is being driven primarily by infrastructure projects and selective residential developments rather than a broad-based recovery.
Residential crane numbers held steady at 17, unchanged from Q3 2025. Six new cranes were installed, offset by six removals. Residential cranes now account for approximately 29% of all long-term cranes in the city, well below the 40–60% range seen between 2016 and 2022.
The residential pipeline continues to support activity, including new projects from developers such as Simplicity Living, which recently erected two tower cranes at its Morningside development.
Tier 2 contractors, including Kalmar and CMP, are leading current activity, while Tier 1 contractors remain at historically low levels.
Despite subdued construction levels, forward indicators in Auckland are improving. The total value of building work fell 8.4% in 2025 to $12.5 billion, while new building consents rose 13.3% in the year to January 2026, reaching 15,779 dwellings.
Looking ahead: recovery will depend on confidence and commitment
External risks remain a factor in shaping the outlook.
While it is too early to assess the full impact of the Iran conflict, potential pressures on oil prices and global supply chains could contribute to renewed cost escalation. This reinforces the importance of procurement flexibility for future developments.
A sustained recovery will depend on stronger project commitment and renewed confidence from both public and private sector clients.
In the near term, the sector is likely to remain constrained. Any recovery is expected to be gradual and led by selective residential and infrastructure projects rather than a broad uplift across all sectors.
A 25-edition perspective on long-term change
This release marks the 25th edition of the RLB Crane Index® in New Zealand, offering a long-term view of construction activity.
When the Index was first introduced in 2014, 71 cranes were recorded across the country, including 25 in Auckland. Today’s total of 102 cranes reflects the growth in high-rise construction over the past decade, even as the current cycle reaches a low point.
Explore our in-depth analysis and an interactive breakdown of the cranes and projects here.
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